Hayden Hurst Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Hayden Hurst

NFL · Player Props

Hayden Hurst

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 8, 2022

Updated Nov 1, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Hayden Hurst Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+193/-286).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +195 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +193.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 64.6 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Hayden Hurst has been an integral part of his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 15.9% this year, which places him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
Hayden Hurst has accrued significantly more air yards this season (26.0 per game) than he did last season (19.0 per game).
Hayden Hurst's 28.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 16.6.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: least in the league.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (56.4%) to TEs this year (56.4%).
The Cleveland Browns defense has given up the 7th-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL to tight ends: 0.14 per game this year.

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