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Hayden Hurst

Hayden Hurst Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 4

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins

Hayden Hurst Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+338/-644).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.

Hayden Hurst has accounted for a colossal 8.9% of his offense's air yards this year: 81st percentile among tight ends.

Hayden Hurst's 25.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 16.6.

The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 3rd-highest Completion% in the NFL (80.5%) to TEs this year (80.5%).

The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bengals are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Hayden Hurst's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.1% to 74.5%.

The Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the 5th-best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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