Gus Edwards Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Gus Edwards

NFL · Player Props

Gus Edwards

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Gus Edwards Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Ravens to be the 4th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 47.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Gus Edwards's rushing efficiency (4.89 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (80th percentile among RBs).
The Cleveland Browns defense has had the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, yielding 4.86 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Gus Edwards has been a more important option in his team's offense this year, playing on 37.4% of snaps vs just 26.4% last year.
Gus Edwards has been worse at generating extra rushing yardage this year, compiling 1.97 yards-after-contact vs a 3.64 rate last year.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Cleveland's collection of LBs has been excellent since the start of last season, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.

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