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Gus Edwards

Gus Edwards Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Gus Edwards Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-210/+165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -210.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense this year: most in the NFL.

Gus Edwards comes in as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL when it comes to RBs, completing a remarkable 91.9% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 77th percentile.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been gouged for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (87.5%) versus RBs this year (87.5%).

As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Tampa Bay's unit has been very bad this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Chargers have run the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 54.4 plays per game.

Gus Edwards has been has not been looked to very often his team's offense, posting a Target Share of just 1.3% this year, which places him in the 16th percentile when it comes to RBs.

With a feeble 0.2 adjusted receptions per game (1st percentile) this year, Gus Edwards ranks among the worst running backs in the pass game in the league.

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