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Gus Edwards Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/+100).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +100.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Los Angeles Chargers since the start of last season (a whopping 59.8 per game on average).The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may suffer.Gus Edwards has posted a massive 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).Gus Edwards is positioned as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among running backs, completing an exceptional 100.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 100th percentile.Gus Edwards is positioned as one of the top running backs in the league at picking up extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a fantastic 11.46 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 88th percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 52.9% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.The predictive model expects the Chargers to run the 8th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.With a subpar 6.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (23rd percentile) since the start of last season, Gus Edwards places as one of the weakest pass-game running backs in the league.The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (78%) versus running backs since the start of last season (78.0%).As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's group of safeties has been great since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
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