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Gus Edwards

Gus Edwards Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Rams

Gus Edwards Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 3.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Ravens are expected by the projection model to run 66.7 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.

Gus Edwards's 28.1% Route% this year conveys a substantial growth in his passing attack usage over last year's 9.6% figure.

In regards to air yards, Gus Edwards grades out in the towering 86th percentile among RBs this year, totaling a whopping 2.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Ravens, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points.

The projections expect the Ravens as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The Rams defense has given up the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 24.0) to running backs this year.

The Rams pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus running backs this year, conceding 4.13 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the fewest in the NFL.

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