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Gus Edwards

Gus Edwards Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals

Gus Edwards Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Ravens offense to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.

Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.

Gus Edwards's 29.4% Route Participation Rate this year signifies an impressive growth in his passing offense workload over last year's 9.6% rate.

In regards to air yards, Gus Edwards ranks in the towering 82nd percentile among running backs this year, accumulating a monstrous 1.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more impressive than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).

The Ravens offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3.5 points.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to pass on 51.6% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Ravens are anticipated by the predictive model to run only 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.

Gus Edwards comes in as one of the bottom pass-catching RBs this year, averaging just 6.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 24th percentile when it comes to RBs.

This year, the daunting Bengals defense has conceded a measly 77.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 5th-lowest rate in football.

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