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Gunner Olszewski

Gunner Olszewski Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

New York Giants vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Gunner Olszewski Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The New York Giants may pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to use backup QB Jameis Winston.
  • At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are big underdogs this week, indicating much more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach.
  • Right now, the 9th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the New York Giants.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game against the Packers defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
  • The model projects Gunner Olszewski to be a much bigger part of his team's passing game this week (11.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (2.1% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 5th-least pass-centric offense in the league (58.9% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New York Giants.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being called for in this game) typically prompt lessened passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher rush volume.
  • When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Green Bay's group of safeties has been very good this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the league.

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