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Greg Dulcich Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+720/-900).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -830 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -900.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -7-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are enormous underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a focus on throwing than their normal approach.Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Miami Dolphins to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest clip among all teams this week.At the present time, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football in the red zone (59.7% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Dolphins.The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to call the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.The Miami Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 50.4 plays per game.Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Atlanta Falcons, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 27.2 per game) this year.The Dolphins offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.With a weak 47.9% Adjusted Completion Rate (4th percentile) last year, Greg Dulcich has been as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to tight ends.
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