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Greg Dulcich

Greg Dulcich Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Greg Dulcich Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+440/-445).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -495 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -445.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (58.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Dolphins.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • The projections expect Greg Dulcich to be a much bigger part of his team's passing attack near the goal line in this week's contest (8.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
  • Greg Dulcich's 71.4% Adjusted Catch% this year reflects a substantial boost in his receiving skills over last year's 47.9% rate.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in football versus the Washington Commanders defense this year (74.7% Adjusted Completion%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the model to run just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 51.7 per game on average).
  • The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

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