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Greg Dulcich

Greg Dulcich Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Greg Dulcich Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+415/-500).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +750 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +415.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins are a giant 8-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 61.5% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Right now, the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (59.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Miami Dolphins.
  • Our trusted projections expect Greg Dulcich to be a much bigger part of his team's air attack near the end zone in this week's contest (10.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (2.1% in games he has played).
  • Greg Dulcich's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 47.9% to 100.0%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Dolphins to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Dolphins this year (only 52.4 per game on average).
  • Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.9 per game) this year.
  • When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year.
  • The Buffalo Bills defense has given up the fewest receiving touchdowns in the league to tight ends: 0.12 per game this year.

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