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Greg Dulcich

Greg Dulcich Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Greg Dulcich Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+139/-141).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +127 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +139.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins are a giant 8-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 61.5% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • The leading projections forecast Greg Dulcich to be a more important option in his team's air attack in this game (12.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.3% in games he has played).
  • Greg Dulcich's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 47.9% to 100.0%.
  • When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Buffalo's group of LBs has been awful this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Dolphins to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Dolphins this year (only 52.4 per game on average).
  • Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.9 per game) this year.
  • When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year.

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