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Greg Dortch Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+510/-640).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -700 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -640.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Cardinals will be rolling out backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.At a -4-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their typical game plan.Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cardinals to pass on 62.4% of their downs: the 4th-highest rate on the slate this week.At the present time, the 4th-most pass-focused offense in football near the goal line (61.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Cardinals.At the moment, the 8th-fastest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Arizona Cardinals.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Greg Dortch, who has been given 6.7% of his team's rush attempts near the end zone this year (100th percentile), is in the unique position (for a WR) of being involved in the Arizona Cardinals red zone rushing attack.After totaling 11.0 air yards per game last season, Greg Dortch has produced significantly less this season, now boasting 5.0 per game.The Cardinals offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all passing game metrics across the board.Greg Dortch has rushed for 0.08 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in football among WRs and TEs (90th percentile).This year, the daunting Buccaneers defense has surrendered a meager 62.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 7th-smallest rate in the NFL.
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