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Greg Dortch

Greg Dortch Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Arizona Cardinals vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
Greg Dortch Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+320/-450).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -415 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -450.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Arizona Cardinals will be rolling out backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • The model projects the Cardinals as the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.5% red zone pass rate.
  • The model projects this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Cardinals have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.1 plays per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Greg Dortch, who has garnered 7.1% of his team's carries near the goal line this year (99th percentile), finds himself in the unique position (for a wideout) of being involved in the Arizona Cardinals red zone run game.
  • After accruing 11.0 air yards per game last year, Greg Dortch has fallen off this year, now averaging 1.0 per game.
  • Greg Dortch's 10.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 17.2.
  • When talking about pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Arizona Cardinals grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.
  • With a terrific ratio of 0.09 rushing touchdowns per game (91st percentile), Greg Dortch places among the leading rushing TD-scorers in the league among WRs and TEs this year.

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