|
|
Greg Dortch Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-105/-130).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -105.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
|
|
The Arizona Cardinals will be rolling out backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.The model projects the Cardinals as the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.The model projects this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.The Cardinals have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.1 plays per game.This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
|
|
After accruing 11.0 air yards per game last year, Greg Dortch has fallen off this year, now averaging 1.0 per game.When talking about pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Arizona Cardinals grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.With a poor 15.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (24th percentile) this year, Greg Dortch ranks as one of the weakest pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL.Greg Dortch's ability to generate extra yardage has tailed off this season, totaling just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 7.95 figure last season.This year, the strong Jaguars defense has yielded a meager 59.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 5th-best rate in the NFL.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
