Giovanni Ricci Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Giovanni Ricci

FB · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 1:10 PM UTC

Analysis

Giovanni Ricci Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+121/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.48 seconds per play.
Giovanni Ricci has accrued a whopping 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded the 10th-most receiving yards per game in football (38.0) to RBs since the start of last season.
The Carolina Panthers have gone up against a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
Giovanni Ricci has been been lightly used his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of just 0.9% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 10th percentile among running backs.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.