Gerald Everett Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Gerald Everett

TE · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Gerald Everett Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower ground volume.
Our trusted projections expect Gerald Everett to accrue 4.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Gerald Everett's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 69.2% to 81.6%.
With a fantastic 5.79 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (82nd percentile) this year, Gerald Everett stands as one of the top pass-game tight ends in the league in picking up extra yardage.

Favors Under

The Chargers have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored this week, implying more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see just 126.6 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Broncos, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in football (just 34.6 per game) this year.
After totaling 31.0 air yards per game last year, Gerald Everett has seen a big downtick this year, currently averaging 16.0 per game.