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George Pickens

George Pickens Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Denver Broncos vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
George Pickens Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+168/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -245 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -190.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A passing game script is implied by the Cowboys being a -4-point underdog this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The Cowboys have been the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 60.3% red zone pass rate.
  • The model projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
  • With a high 24.4% Red Zone Target Rate (89th percentile) this year, George Pickens rates as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • George Pickens's 58.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 71.0.
  • When it comes to pass protection (and the influence it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Cowboys grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year.
  • This year, the imposing Broncos defense has allowed a paltry 64.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 2nd-best rate in the league.
  • The Denver Broncos defense has conceded the fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL to WRs: 0.14 per game this year.

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