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George Pickens

George Pickens Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers

George Pickens Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-176).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -205 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -176.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's spread implies a passing game script for the Cowboys, who are -6.5-point underdogs.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cowboys to pass on 64.5% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest clip among all teams this week.

With a 62.4% rate of throwing the ball near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL under these circumstances has been the Cowboys.

The 2nd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Dallas Cowboys since the start of last season (a monstrous 61.4 per game on average).

The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have only 125.3 plays on offense run: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.

Our trusted projections expect George Pickens to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing attack near the end zone in this week's contest (26.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (38.9% in games he has played).

George Pickens's 42.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 71.0.

The Cowboys offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Since the start of last season, the formidable Packers defense has conceded a paltry 0.85 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.

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