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George Pickens

George Pickens Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Chicago Bears vs Dallas Cowboys

George Pickens Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+140/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

The Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.3 plays per game.

George Pickens has posted a colossal 98.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among WRs.

George Pickens rates in the 90th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) with a remarkable 65.0 mark since the start of last season.

George Pickens's 69.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this year shows a substantial boost in his pass-catching talent over last year's 59.1% mark.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the moment, the 9th-most run-heavy offense in football near the end zone (45.7% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.

While George Pickens has garnered 31.7% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the model projects him to be a much smaller piece of Dallas's pass game near the goal line in this week's contest at 23.0%.

In regards to pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Cowboys ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

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