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George Pickens

George Pickens Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
George Pickens Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+120/-132).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +116 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 9th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • At the moment, the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (59.7% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Cowboys.
  • The predictive model expects the Cowboys offense to be the 9th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.40 seconds per play.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • George Pickens has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 22.1% this year, which puts him in the 88th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Cowboys, who are favored by 5 points.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
  • George Pickens's 59.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 71.0.
  • The Cowboys O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the 10th-lowest clip in football versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year (68.5% Adjusted Completion%).

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