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George Pickens

George Pickens Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
George Pickens Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+138/-152).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +138 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +138.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
  • The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • With a 60.6% rate of passing the ball in the red zone (adjusted for context) this year, the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL in this setting has been the Dallas Cowboys.
  • The Cowboys have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 127.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.3 per game) this year.
  • George Pickens's 59.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 71.0.
  • As it relates to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Cowboys ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.
  • The Chiefs defense has yielded the 7th-fewest receiving TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.64 per game this year.

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