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George Pickens

George Pickens Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
George Pickens Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+164/-178).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -196 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -178.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs this week, indicating more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cowboys to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 5th-highest rate on the slate this week.
  • The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 10th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.9% red zone pass rate.
  • The 10th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Cowboys this year (a colossal 58.8 per game on average).
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Cowboys are projected by the model to run just 61.6 total plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
  • George Pickens's 59.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 71.0.
  • The Cowboys offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the lowest clip in the league versus the Eagles defense this year (63.8% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the formidable Philadelphia Eagles defense has yielded a feeble 0.50 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing WRs: the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL.

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