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George Pickens Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-138/+120).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -146 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -138.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.The Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.3 plays per game.With a remarkable 4.2 adjusted catches per game (78th percentile) since the start of last season, George Pickens has been as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL.George Pickens's 69.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this year shows a substantial boost in his pass-catching talent over last year's 59.1% mark.When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Chicago's unit has been very bad since the start of last season, grading out as the 2nd-worst in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Cowboys have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.The model projects George Pickens to be a less important option in his team's passing game in this week's contest (18.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (24.3% in games he has played).In regards to pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Cowboys ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.
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