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George Pickens Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+148/-174).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -151 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -174.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The 2nd-most plays in football have been run by the Dallas Cowboys since the start of last season (a staggering 60.4 per game on average).This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.This week, George Pickens is predicted by the projections to finish in the 77th percentile among wide receivers with 6.7 targets.George Pickens profiles as one of the leading wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 4.2 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.The New York Giants pass defense has been torched for the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (68.9%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (68.9%).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 5.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this game, indicating more of a focus on running than their normal game plan.Our trusted projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 28.3 per game) since the start of last season.Our trusted projections expect George Pickens to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing game in this week's contest (20.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (25.4% in games he has played).The Dallas Cowboys O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
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