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George Pickens

George Pickens Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
George Pickens Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/-100).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cowboys to pass on 60.7% of their chances: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 60.3 plays per game.
  • The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
  • The predictive model expects George Pickens to accrue 8.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • George Pickens's receiving skills have been refined this year, averaging 5.7 adjusted receptions compared to just 4.2 last year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and approaches of each team, our trusted projections expect this game (with an average of 26.69 seconds per play) will have the 11th-slowest tempo on the slate this week.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
  • George Pickens's 57.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 71.0.
  • The Cowboys O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
  • This year, the daunting Los Angeles Chargers defense has allowed a feeble 58.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-smallest rate in football.

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