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George Pickens

George Pickens Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
George Pickens Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+112/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -101 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +112.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 9th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • The predictive model expects the Cowboys offense to be the 9th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.40 seconds per play.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The projections expect George Pickens to garner 8.2 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 90th percentile among WRs.
  • George Pickens's 6.0 adjusted receptions per game this season marks a material progression in his pass-catching skills over last season's 4.2 figure.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Cowboys, who are favored by 5 points.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
  • George Pickens's 59.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 71.0.
  • The Cowboys O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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