George Pickens Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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George Pickens

NFL · Player Props

George Pickens

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 14, 2025

Updated Dec 5, 2025 1:17 AM EST

Analysis

George Pickens Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 83.5 (-107/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 77.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 83.5 @ -107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 58.8 plays per game.
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

Favors Under

George Pickens's 61.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 71.0.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Cowboys grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.
George Pickens's ability to grind out extra yardage has tailed off this year, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 2.95 rate last year.
The Lions pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (62.4%) vs. wideouts this year (62.4%).
The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the 6th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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