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George Pickens

George Pickens Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
George Pickens Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 75.5 (-101/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 75.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 75.5 @ -103.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
  • The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Cowboys have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The model projects George Pickens to accrue 9.0 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among WRs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 127.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.3 per game) this year.
  • George Pickens's 59.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 71.0.
  • As it relates to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Cowboys ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.
  • George Pickens's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season reflects a noteworthy decline in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season's 3.0% mark.

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