George Pickens Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

George Pickens

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 12, 2024

Updated Nov 21, 2024 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

George Pickens Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 55.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 60.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 137.5 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.
The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a whopping 61.4 per game on average).
The leading projections forecast George Pickens to garner 7.5 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
After totaling 89.0 air yards per game last season, George Pickens has been rising this season, currently averaging 101.0 per game.
George Pickens's 77.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 62.5.

Favors Under

This week's line suggests a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Steelers to pass on 44.1% of their chances: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being projected in this game) typically cause worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher rush volume.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.3 per game) this year.
George Pickens's 2.88 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season signifies a noteworthy decline in his efficiency in the open field over last season's 5.9% figure.