George Pickens Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

reorder

NFL · Player Props

George Pickens

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 8, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

George Pickens Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-155/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 40.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 41.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

After totaling 78.0 air yards per game last season, George Pickens has made big progress this season, now pacing 88.0 per game.
George Pickens's 60.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 44.8.
George Pickens has accumulated substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (59.0) this season than he did last season (48.0).
George Pickens is positioned as one of the most efficient receivers in football, averaging a fantastic 9.27 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 76th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, New England's CB corps has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 7th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 5.5 points.
Our trusted projections expect the Steelers as the 5th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 52.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are forecasted by the projections to call only 63.6 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a measly 55.5 per game on average).
The Pittsburgh O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all passing game metrics across the board.