George Pickens Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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George Pickens

NFL · Player Props

George Pickens

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

George Pickens Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 44.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
George Pickens has accrued significantly more air yards this year (89.0 per game) than he did last year (78.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point gain in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, George Pickens has been more heavily relied on in his offense's pass game.
With an outstanding 57.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (79th percentile) this year, George Pickens ranks as one of the top pass-catching WRs in the NFL.
The Cardinals pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (70.7%) to wide receivers this year (70.7%).

Favors Under

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their normal approach.
The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Steelers have called the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being projected in this game) usually cause decreased passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and higher run volume.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.

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