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George Kittle

George Kittle Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
George Kittle Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+162/-340).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -162 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -340.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 49ers may lean on the pass less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Mac Jones.
  • The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 137.7 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a staggering 60.9 per game on average).
  • The Giants defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (37.4 per game) this year.
  • The projections expect George Kittle to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack near the end zone in this week's game (20.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (13.3% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 10th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 45.7% red zone run rate.
  • As it relates to protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the San Francisco 49ers ranks as the 8th-worst in the league this year.
  • George Kittle's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 85.6% to 80.8%.
  • This year, the stout Giants defense has surrendered a paltry 68.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 4th-smallest rate in football.
  • This year, the anemic Giants run defense has conceded a colossal 1.25 touchdowns on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 5th-biggest rate in the league.

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