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George Kittle

George Kittle Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 7

San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
George Kittle Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+182/-190).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +180 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +182.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The San Francisco 49ers will be forced to use backup QB Mac Jones in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to run the 7th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 64.2 plays per game.
  • George Kittle has put up a colossal 54.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • George Kittle slots into the 96th percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) with an impressive 46.6 figure since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 10th-most run-centric team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 45.6% red zone run rate.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 26.8 pass attempts per game versus the Falcons defense this year: fewest in football.
  • While George Kittle has earned 25.9% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller part of San Francisco's offense near the goal line in this game at 20.7%.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 10th-highest clip in the NFL versus the Falcons defense since the start of last season (72.3% Adjusted Completion%).

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