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George Kittle

George Kittle Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
George Kittle Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -194 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -180.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
  • With an exceptional 20.7% Red Zone Target% (90th percentile) this year, George Kittle has been among the TEs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football.
  • George Kittle's 48.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) ranks among the best in the league: 98th percentile for tight ends.
  • With an outstanding 87.3% Adjusted Catch% (94th percentile) this year, George Kittle rates as one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL among TEs.
  • With an outstanding rate of 0.58 per game through the air (95th percentile), George Kittle places as one of the leading receiving TD-scorers in the NFL when it comes to TEs this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the San Francisco 49ers offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 28.78 seconds per snap.
  • The weather report calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • George Kittle has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (47.0 per game) than he did last season (56.0 per game).
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-lowest rate in the league vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year (67.2% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Seahawks safeties grade out as the 6th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

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