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George Kittle

George Kittle Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

San Francisco 49ers vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
George Kittle Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+105/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -150.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • George Kittle has been an integral part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 20.7% this year, which places him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
  • George Kittle's 48.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 98th percentile for TEs.
  • George Kittle grades out as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among TEs, completing a remarkable 87.3% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 94th percentile.
  • George Kittle ranks in the 95th percentile among TEs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.58 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • Right now, the 8th-slowest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the 49ers.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game against the Bears defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
  • After averaging 56.0 air yards per game last year, George Kittle has seen a big decline this year, now boasting 47.0 per game.
  • The Chicago Bears defense has given up the 6th-fewest receiving touchdowns in football to TEs: 0.33 per game this year.

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