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George Kittle Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+126/-140).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +123 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +126.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The San Francisco 49ers have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 59.4 plays per game.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.The Colts defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (38.9 per game) this year.George Kittle has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 20.8% this year, which puts him in the 90th percentile among tight ends.George Kittle's 46.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the best in football: 96th percentile for tight ends.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 4 points.Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.7% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 125.6 plays on offense run: the lowest number among all games this week.After totaling 56.0 air yards per game last year, George Kittle has been a disappointment this year, now sitting at 39.0 per game.This year, the stout Indianapolis Colts defense has yielded a puny 0.36 passing touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends: the 6th-lowest rate in football.
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