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George Kittle

George Kittle Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

San Francisco 49ers vs Tennessee Titans

 
 
 
George Kittle Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+127/-144).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +138 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +127.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a top-tier 22.5% Red Zone Target Rate (92nd percentile) this year, George Kittle has been among the tight ends with the highest volume near the goal line in football.
  • George Kittle rates in the 97th percentile when it comes to tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) with a superb 44.6 mark this year.
  • George Kittle comes in as one of the most reliable receivers in football among TEs, completing an outstanding 87.4% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 96th percentile.
  • With an excellent ratio of 0.56 per game through the air (95th percentile), George Kittle rates as one of the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL when it comes to tight ends this year.
  • This year, the shaky Titans defense has been torched for a colossal 74.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-highest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 12.5-point advantage, the 49ers are a huge favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their typical approach.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the 49ers to pass on 52.0% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have only 126.7 offensive plays run: the 4th-fewest out of all the games this week.
  • After totaling 56.0 air yards per game last season, George Kittle has produced significantly less this season, now boasting 41.0 per game.
  • Opposing offenses have rushed for the 2nd-most TDs in the league (1.38 per game) versus the Titans defense this year.

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