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George Kittle

George Kittle Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
George Kittle Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+164/-186).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -166 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -186.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 131.1 total plays called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • The 6th-most plays in the league have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a colossal 59.9 per game on average).
  • The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
  • The Cardinals defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (36.2 per game) this year.
  • George Kittle has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 21.9% this year, which ranks in the 90th percentile among tight ends.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 3.5 points.
  • After accruing 56.0 air yards per game last year, George Kittle has fallen off this year, now sitting at 27.0 per game.
  • George Kittle's 32.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 48.4.
  • The San Francisco O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • The Cardinals pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (71.3%) to tight ends this year (71.3%).

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