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George Kittle

George Kittle Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
George Kittle Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-172).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -178 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -172.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The San Francisco 49ers may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling out backup quarterback Mac Jones.
  • A throwing game script is suggested by the 49ers being a -6-point underdog this week.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 61.4% of their plays: the 4th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • The projections expect the 49ers to call the most offensive plays on the slate this week with 68.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • The 3rd-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a staggering 60.6 per game on average).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the present time, the 10th-most run-heavy team in the NFL in the red zone (45.7% adjusted for context) according to the model is the 49ers.
  • George Kittle has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (21.0 per game) than he did last season (56.0 per game).
  • George Kittle's 26.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 48.4.
  • As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the 49ers grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year.
  • The Rams defense has yielded the 9th-fewest receiving TDs in football to TEs: 0.38 per game this year.

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