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George Kittle

George Kittle Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-150/+120).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The San Francisco 49ers have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 59.4 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The Colts defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (38.9 per game) this year.
  • With an elite 84.9% Route Participation Rate (97th percentile) this year, George Kittle places among the TEs with the highest volume in the NFL.
  • Our trusted projections expect George Kittle to accrue 7.6 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 4 points.
  • Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.7% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 125.6 plays on offense run: the lowest number among all games this week.
  • George Kittle's 4.1 adjusted receptions per game this season shows an impressive decrease in his receiving prowess over last season's 5.3 mark.

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