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George Kittle

George Kittle Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Cleveland Browns vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+138/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -143 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -145.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have 133.1 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • In this contest, George Kittle is forecasted by the projection model to find himself in the 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.0 targets.
  • George Kittle is positioned as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football among TEs, completing a remarkable 87.7% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 94th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 49ers are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a running game script.
  • Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 4th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 26-mph being predicted in this game) usually mean lessened passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and higher ground volume.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 28.9 per game) this year.
  • George Kittle's 43.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 48.4.

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