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George Kittle

George Kittle Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Buffalo Bills vs San Francisco 49ers

George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is implied by the 49ers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.

Opposing QBs have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense this year: 10th-most in the league.

In this contest, George Kittle is predicted by the projection model to land in the 88th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.3 targets.

With an impressive 22.9% Target Rate (97th percentile) this year, George Kittle ranks as one of the TEs with the highest volume in the league.

George Kittle's play as a receiver has been refined this year, compiling 5.5 adjusted catches vs just 4.0 last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the 49ers to pass on 59.0% of their plays: the 10th-highest rate among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The 49ers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.8 plays per game.

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

The San Francisco 49ers O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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