George Kittle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 3:46 AM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-160/+130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to total 6.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
George Kittle has been among the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a stellar 4.6 receptions per game while checking in at the 93rd percentile.
George Kittle's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 75.6% to 79.5%.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a heavy 7.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.
George Kittle's 40.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 51.7.