George Kittle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 10, 2024

Updated Nov 10, 2024 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

George Kittle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 64.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 55.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 64.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 4th-most in football.
This week, George Kittle is projected by the predictive model to rank in the 94th percentile among tight ends with 7.1 targets.
George Kittle has compiled significantly more air yards this year (68.0 per game) than he did last year (55.0 per game).
George Kittle's 55.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 48.4.
George Kittle's 76.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year shows a noteworthy improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 60.0 figure.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
Our trusted projections expect the 49ers to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
George Kittle's 4.72 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season indicates a remarkable decrease in his effectiveness in the open field over last season's 6.9% rate.

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