George Kittle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 24, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 44.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 48.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The model projects George Kittle to earn 6.2 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
In regards to air yards, George Kittle grades out in the lofty 89th percentile among TEs this year, accumulating a remarkable 35.0 per game.
George Kittle is positioned as one of the most effective receivers in the league among tight ends, averaging an outstanding 9.27 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 93rd percentile.
With an outstanding 6.56 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (80th percentile) this year, George Kittle rates as one of the top pass-catching tight ends in the NFL in the open field.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the 49ers are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 62.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.2 plays per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, George Kittle has been used much less in his offense's air attack.