George Kittle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 22

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 22, 2023

Updated Feb 11, 2024 10:31 PM EST

Analysis

George Kittle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (+100/-124).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ -124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.
With an exceptional 88.9% Route Participation% (99th percentile) this year, George Kittle places as one of the tight ends with the most usage in football.
The leading projections forecast George Kittle to notch 6.0 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among TEs.
George Kittle has compiled far more air yards this season (54.0 per game) than he did last season (41.0 per game).

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the 49ers as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 58.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 54.1 plays per game.
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Chiefs, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 25.8 per game) this year.
When it comes to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the San Francisco 49ers profiles as the worst in the league this year.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has yielded the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 36.0) versus TEs this year.

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