George Kittle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

George Kittle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-115/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 42.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 41.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to garner 5.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
George Kittle has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football among tight ends, catching a terrific 76.6% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 77th percentile.
George Kittle has been among the most efficient receivers in the NFL among TEs, averaging an impressive 9.06 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 87th percentile.
George Kittle's talent in picking up extra yardage have gotten a boost this year, accumulating 6.93 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 5.91 rate last year.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week, averaging 27.07 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
George Kittle has notched quite a few less air yards this year (35.0 per game) than he did last year (48.0 per game).

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