George Kittle Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+215/-330).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -312 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -330.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
George Kittle's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 75.6% to 86.3%.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has given up the 4th-most TDs through the air in football to tight ends: 0.67 per game this year.

Favors Under

The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to be a much smaller piece of his offense's pass game near the end zone this week (17.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (23.1% in games he has played).
George Kittle has posted quite a few less air yards this year (28.0 per game) than he did last year (58.0 per game).
George Kittle's 36.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 51.7.

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