George Kittle Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 16, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+211/-327).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +243 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +211.

Key Factors

Favors Over

George Kittle has been an integral part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 18.2% this year, which puts him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.
George Kittle ranks in the 91st percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.36 per game.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has surrendered the 5th-most TDs through the air in the league to TEs: 0.46 per game this year.
The Seattle Seahawks linebackers project as the 4th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.87 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
George Kittle has notched far fewer air yards this year (33.0 per game) than he did last year (48.0 per game).
George Kittle's 35.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 46.2.

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